100,000 barrels behind demand.

[Frozen Toews]

It isn't really new news... since they sent out a "warning" last May about shortages that may last several years. But Buffalo Trace announced this week that they are 100K barrels behind demand. That is a lot of whiskey. I'm not one to hoard... but i now have a few bottles of Eagle Rare and Trace in the basement.

"The distillery warned that popular brands like Buffalo Trace, Eagle Rare and Blanton's may, from time to time, disappear from shelves for up to a month."

My question to any of you in the industry, as it came up in a discussion with a friend....In regards to Trace or others that have no definitive age statement. With the demand so high, do you think this will result in barrels being pulled off the shelf sooner than they used to be? Are they more likely to pull some barrels at 5 years, when they used to pull at 6 or 7 resulting in available product, but maybe slightly inferior to just 2-3 years ago.

 

[D Quintero]

Theyre even considering watering down its ABV to compensate for the shortages.

 

[mistaforty]

Lol I have plenty of bourbon and other spirits to last a month until it's back.... Now I'd hoard a little if that watering down thing is true ...lol then every body will be like is that a PWD bottle!?

 

[smokinghole]

Maybe its an industry wide marketing strategy warning of a supply vs demand issue. Only they made too much and are trying to cause shelf clearing by making it news it a shortage.....

If I were you I wouldn't go buy any, tell your friends its just the man playing a trico on them. Buy like normal and live life. That way I can still buy some when im thirsty for bourbon.

 

[javajunkie]

good question. BT/sazerac has a HUGE vested interest in maintaining cred, as they hold like, almost all the pimp shit right now; antique, pappy, taylor, and even blantons, elmer, and eagle are now for me, as a retailer IN DAMN KENTUCKY, allocated items, and not something i can just order up.

the cynic in me can see accusations of market maniplulation, but they are just missing too many sales to really credence that. their barrel program is shut down almost completely, no one not currently in line can go in and buy their own, and those IN line are not currently assured, but rather are on hold. hell, makers received so much flak from the suggestion of changing the proof that they went to shorter production; i have been told several times "it's going to be a couple months until 1.75L bottles are in, so if you need them, get them". my gut says that enough people on staff know that changing the flavor profile would shoot themselves in the foot. i hope.

then again, with the "kentucky only" restriction lifted for the bourbon designation, there are plenty of people chomping at the bit to get in. and also plenty of old but solid brands that don't have the street cred yet. if its worth it to you, lay a couple few down, but of not i am sure you can find someone making a beautiful bourbon, even if it ain't BT.

 

[Argus17]

For a while now, Trace and Elmer have been my go to Bourbons, but last week I tried my very first Rye (Bulleit). I was surprised that I preferred it to my Bourbons. During the shortage, I'll be trying different Ryes, and maybe Bulleit's Bourbon, which I've heard great things of. Right now, I have no desire to go back to my old Buffalo Trace stand bys.

If this is some marketing ploy, and not a real shortage, BT may find that they ended up shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[RamzaFreak20]

I *THINK* Buffalo Trace is aged for eight years. Therefore they are planning bourbon sales 8 years in advanced on top of having to make product for 8 years with no return. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and not think it's market manipulation.

 

[smokinghole]

I am mostly joking about it being a sham. I just dont want people that dont even drink it to hoard and then rape. So I will tell anyone I can that there is plenty of bourbon to go around. Im not a huge bourbon drinker, and if its out I will drink something else. Sadly American rye would likely be affected the same. So we would be left with Canadian rye and scotches which I can certainly use.

 

[javajunkie]

oh, no, the secondary market can go eat a male reproductive organ. i'm with you of that. my good shit goes to people who drink it, period. i work too hard for my neighborhood to waste small releases on sharks and leeches. but i think there is too much focus on too few brands, and that north american whiskey, more specifically american whiskeys, and most specifically bourbons, are going through a patch where the heritage brands are bearing the wirght, and upstarts or the forgotten have a chance to shine. we are still years out before the production stabilizes against the demand.

then again, of trends change in about five years, we might see a shit-ton of very good spirits glutting the market, and i might actually get to put stagg and pappy on the shelf again, instead of hiding it like a hot dog from an undisciplined dachshund. we can hope no one screws the wiener dog on the brands until that point. o)

 

[RacFocus]

Theyre even considering watering down its ABV to compensate for the shortages.

Ask Maker's Mark how that notion worked out for them.

 

[cvm4]

Theyre even considering watering down its ABV to compensate for the shortages.

Ask Maker's Mark how that notion worked out for them.

Exactly what I was thinking! Less than a few weeks and the blend was changed back.

Bourbon is the hot spirit right now. It's evident all over or given the fact that folks are really clamoring for the "local" or "USA" movement. It's something that really not a lot of spirits can compete with. Also, the bourbon makers have went through boom & bust before. They did not see the demand coming. And as is such with an aged spirit, you can't really create supply on the fly. So yeah, there will be shortages. I'd say branch out, buy new bottles of different brands and be a marketers worst nightmare :wink:

 

[smokinghole]

I drink more gin anyhow. I do have a bunch of bourbon at the house though. And premade bottles of manhattans with a slightly bitter edge for my tastes. So its all good. Plus two fifths of Elmer on the the back burner that I picked up months ago when he died.