Castro Steps Down as President of Cuba!

[tuffy]

Fidel has decided to step down as President. Step 1 of 2 is now complete (Castro no longer as President). Now is all we need is an end to the Bush administration to complete step 2 of 2 and hopefully put an end to the embargo.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1941945720080219

 

[daniyal]

I think the embargo runs deeper than merely getting Castro to step down from Presidency.

 

[tuffy]

I think the embargo runs deeper than merely getting Castro to step down from Presidency.

There is no doubt about it, but his brother Raul has said he is willing to talk to Washington once the Bush administration is over. With the official retirement of Fidel, it's looking more positive than it has in many years.

I still think the embargo will run for at least another year, but hopefully with this news, an end is in sight.

 

[daniyal]

Lets see how this situation works out will be interesting to see if Cubans are given a free run in the US market or if their entry may be blocked or opposed by non-Cuban manufacturers who thrived in the market due to the lack of Cubans. I'm sure many of the well established brands in the US market wouldn't be as popular or would've had an opportunity to do as well as they do has the embargo not been in place.

Conversely its an interesting situation for the rest of the world I don't think people outside the US would enjoy paying a higher price because a large portion of the cigars produced is being shipped to the US.

 

[Rich K]

Let's all smoke something special in honor of this news!

 

[caudio51]

Well we all knew the day would come....it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Addiction]

Lets see how this situation works out will be interesting to see if Cubans are given a free run in the US market or if their entry may be blocked or opposed by non-Cuban manufacturers who thrived in the market due to the lack of Cubans. I'm sure many of the well established brands in the US market wouldn't be as popular or would've had an opportunity to do as well as they do has the embargo not been in place.

Conversely its an interesting situation for the rest of the world I don't think people outside the US would enjoy paying a higher price because a large portion of the cigars produced is being shipped to the US.

I have to agree with this point. General owns the American trademark on a lot of Cuban brands (Cohiba, Punch, RyJ). I have to imagine it would be quite some time before those brands could make it into the US market.

 

[indyrob]

It'll be a long time before you'll see cubans at the local B&M. The embargo was put in place to put the squeeze on Castro, but I think that it's gone far past that now.

I think Cuba loves the ideology of Fidel, but doesn't care about what's going on in their country. They want reform too...so I doubt that Raul will be in power for too long.

 

[martini76]

Here's a brief explanation of what we're looking at:

"But any change in U.S. policy is not in the works anytime soon, several observers say, because of President Bush's hardline stand on Cuba and the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which set tough conditions for lifting the embargo.

The conditions include allowing legal political activity, the dissolution of Cuba's secret police and a public commitment to organize free and fair elections that do not include either Fidel or Raúl Castro."

And concerning the presidential candidates:

"Of the three major presidential hopefuls, Sen. Barack Obama has signaled he would eliminate restrictions on Cuban American travel and remittances to the island but would keep most of the embargo in place. Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain have said they do not plan to ease Cuba sanctions."

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking_news/story/424248.html

 

[daniyal]

I have to agree with this point. General owns the American trademark on a lot of Cuban brands (Cohiba, Punch, RyJ). I have to imagine it would be quite some time before those brands could make it into the US market.

Indeed that is quite an intriguing prospect and there has been litigation in the US regarding the issue and the case was decided in favour of the Cuban government in the first instance only to be overturned on appeal. It would be interesting to follow the trademark issues.

Here's a brief explanation of what we're looking at:

"But any change in U.S. policy is not in the works anytime soon, several observers say, because of President Bush's hardline stand on Cuba and the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which set tough conditions for lifting the embargo.

The conditions include allowing legal political activity, the dissolution of Cuba's secret police and a public commitment to organize free and fair elections that do not include either Fidel or Raúl Castro."

And concerning the presidential candidates:

"Of the three major presidential hopefuls, Sen. Barack Obama has signaled he would eliminate restrictions on Cuban American travel and remittances to the island but would keep most of the embargo in place. Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain have said they do not plan to ease Cuba sanctions."

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking_news/story/424248.html

Agreed! I don't think Fidel stepping down will spell an end to the embargo I think the embargo has gone beyond what initially envisioned by JFK and most have probably forgotten why its there in the first place. Though it is interesting to note that several US States actually trade food stuff with Cuba so we'll probably see them peel away the embargo by allowing tourism and basic commodity exchange much before cigars make it across the water.

 

[bballbaby]

Like others have said, imagine the initial onslaught they would take. Not many cigars other than cubans wouldb e bought for at least a year. Once your allowed to have something you couldn't have, you'll gorge yourself on it til your tired of it. I suspect the non-cc maket will take a few years to recover from it. Unless of course your at the top of your game, like say, the Fuentes. Sure there will be people still buying the less expensive non-ccs, but for a while, most everyone will be buying cubans.

BUT, i don't see it happening anytime soon. The castros have already proven they don't need us.

but i would love to travel there. i hear its gorgeous and like stepping back in time. I love places like that.

 

[RigilKent]

it wont happen for a while yet. and when it is lifted i think that cubans will only began to trickle into the american market. but it will be interesting to see how it develops.

 

[Volusianator]

Well we all knew the day would come....it will be interesting to see what happens.

Yep, and those that like those CC's better start stocking up before the quality goes down the crapper.

 

[Boppa-Wasch]

This is more of a step over / out of the way for brother to take over. Not really a "step down". Nothing has really changed, just the name at the top.

 

[Jwrussell]

You would think that with this particular election that one of the two Dem candidates (not that I want either in office) would have the balls (ovaries) to stand up and say, "the embargo doesn't work and I'm getting rid of it". But no, can't risk upsetting that little block of voters down in MI, now can we?

 

[smokinghole]

I wonder if Cuba could ramp up production fast enough and like Wade said keep up the quality. I doubt it. Plus in my opinion they cost more than I like to pay for the same enjoyment I get from Camacho and Pepin just to name two. Also I have a feeling they would go back to not aging their tobacco again.

I think the biggest hit to the american market would be the cheaper cigars that the cuban machine mades would take over for. I think the premiums here would still sell just fine because the premiums from the CC side are too rich for my blood to buy regularly.

My last bit of thought in this is how would the anti-tobacco legislation handle another avenue for cigars to enter the country? I wouldn't push it past our govt to some how spell out what we can trade with from cuba and cigars not being one of them. That would be one of those "naah that's the most retarded thing I ever heard" types of things that our stupid ass partisan govt would come up with.

 

[blessednxs65]

Yep, and those that like those CC's better start stocking up before the quality goes down the crapper.

Here, here. I read a post to this by Orlando Padron where he stated that even if the Embargo ended today, the ability to produce what the US would demand would basically strip the plantations of their nutrients. And that alone would spell quality issues for 1-3 years.

So to me the question is this. Should they end the Embargo, how long before we get quality smokes at a reasonable price and who of the current NC manufacturers stay in business?

 

[CWS]

Every administration since Kennedy has followed the line on Cuba so I would not expect much from a change of President. Fidel is passing the torch to Raul and while Raul may be interested in talking the US will want to see change before anything happens. FInally, the Habanos marketing machine has been finely tuned in many markets. The success of the LCDH stores is record. I would expect to see company owned stores long before you see local distributors get any Cuban lines. 2 cents.

 

[Jimmy2]

President Ford almost lifted the embargo in the 1970's it was stopped because Castro's involvement in another African conflict which stopped it in its tracks.

Cuba supplied the whole world with cigars before the revolution and there were no problems and there were more cigar smokers back in those day's.


And I think quality would only get better and we are the most advanced country in agriculture which would only help Cuba.

As far as the NC companies if the embargo ends they are in trouble and they know it.


And would not believe a thing they would say otherwise.

 

[smokem94]

You would think that with this particular election that one of the two Dem candidates (not that I want either in office) would have the balls (ovaries) to stand up and say, "the embargo doesn't work and I'm getting rid of it". But no, can't risk upsetting that little block of voters down in MI, now can we?

If one of them did that, would you vote for them????????:stretchgr