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Fun With Speculation??

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A search through the BOTL archives led me to an old 2005-era thread which asked "Are cigars a good investment?" That's sort of the topic I'm interested in, but certainly from less than a hard-core "I'm in this to retire!" perspective. I just like to have fun with eBay and make a few bucks and, for example, I noted that after the Tatuaje "The Mummy" dress boxes (MSRP: $169) sold out in two seconds, they started popping up on eBay, with several single dress boxes selling for $399. The mature adult in me thinks, "That's insane." But the grifter that lurks just underneath thinks, "How can I get a piece of that?!"

Here's my current little passive ploy. A couple of years back, I bought two chests ($210 per) of Gurkha Genghis Khan Churchills. If you're not familiar with them, these were a limited edition run in 2005-- only 1,000 chests were (supposedly) produced. The chests themselves are gorgeous-- again, though, to highlight the insanity of eBay, an empty chest just recently sold for $150-- and people are trying to sell empty chests right now for up to $500 (good luck with that). So I'm just sitting on these (the sticks are in a properly maintained humidor), waiting to see if the boxes altogether disappear from the retail marketplace so maybe I can flip 'em. Last week, CI was selling boxes for $249, but this week, they indicate "out of stock." I see boxes still available at texcigars.com-- but for $330, so perhaps my plan is working. (You might wonder how the cigars are. Well, in addition to the two boxes, I bought a five-pack to actually smoke. The awful truth is that I didn't like them very much-- But some people think they're awesome.)

So my question is-- are there any good bets out there for certain brands that produce certain limited edition packaging that can be expected to appreciate in the short term so we can have fun with eBay? For example, what I was looking at this morning was the 2012 "Destino al Siglo" Fuente Opus X (in either the white or blue boxes-- as they had a lesser production run than the macassar--there are only about 400 or so of each of the blue and white boxes, as opposed to about 1,100 of the macassar). So this set runs about $169. Do you think this is going to look like "The Mummy" in the insane collector aftermarket down the road? I also recently bought a tin of Opus X 1992 Rare Estate Reserve in Perfecxion for $50 on eBay, fully intending to smoke these because that seemed like a good price for these special occasion cigars (and I am turning 50 in 2013). But since I got the tin in the mail (which I have not yet unwrapped), I see that they're now going for almost $100 on eBay-- and CigarsDirect also is selling them for just under $100. So do I smoke 'em or flip 'em? *sigh*

(I do apologize for speaking in such mercenary terms of our beloved leaf. Rest assured, I have a few humidors full of fine cigars that I fully intend to savor and enjoy before the Big Sleep.)
 

BrooksW

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Honestly, I don't think you are going to get many people to talk kindly on this site about flipping cigars.

Having said that, if you want to pick a brand to try and flip, Gurkha is not it.
 
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There have been a lot of nice Fuente Story boxes come out over the years and none of them have sold for premium from what I have seen. Also, those tins you bought for $50 do not have collectibility. Do not let the 1992 Rare Estate tagline fool you. eBay is not the best gauge of pricing and neither is CigarsDirect.
 

Craig Mac

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To go along with what Brook's said, this site is about brotherhood and the "share the share" philosophy, so the thought of flipping cigars here is not well received. Most brothers would go out of their way here to hook a brother up with a rare cigar than even think for a second about turning a profit on it. To put it bluntly, most here would find someone a "scumbag" for gouging for cigars.
 

twenty5

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The gurkha chests are probably worth more after you take the cigars out.
 
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I was kind of afraid of this response. My thought, though, was that it is not our brothers and sisters on the other end of the transaction in the eBay world, which we all agree is populated, to some significant extent, with folks who exhibit buying behaviors not unlike lunatics. Who is it that is paying $400 for a Mummy dress box? Not any of us... Still, I'm happy to let the issue die with this last post!
 

Craig Mac

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I was kind of afraid of this response. My thought, though, was that it is not our brothers and sisters on the other end of the transaction in the eBay world, which we all agree is populated, to some significant extent, with folks who exhibit buying behaviors not unlike lunatics. Who is it that is paying $400 for a Mummy dress box? Not any of us... Still, I'm happy to let the issue die with this last post!
I think the problem still lies in the fact that many here like to chase after hard to find cigars then they come up empty in their search only to find someone selling them on eBay to the highest bidder. It is frustrating when the cigars you are looking for are bought with the intention to be resold and you can't get them to smoke.
 

Hoshneer

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Yeah, you would piss people off flipping them on here but eBay in my eyes is no big deal. If people are willing to pay for them then I don't see the foul for that. I just wouldn't talk about it on here because some people may get a little butt-hurt. You can still be brotherly on the forum and still make a little cash on eBay. IMHO
 
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Maybe the person who buys cigars on eBay is not a member of this site BOTL.org but they are in fact a BOTL or SOTL simply because they clearly enjoy the same hobby as we do, collecting and smoking fine cigars. I don't just "bomb" members here, I share with all kinds of people I meet, my generosity and compassion doesn't end at BOTL.org
 
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If someone is willing to pay over MSRP for a box of cigars on eBay, that's their choice.
No one truly has the right to think negatively of the buyer or the seller. I'm sure there are plenty of times the person paying 4x MSRP for a box of cigars is thrilled they can add it to their collection.
It is all a part of the HTF game and if you're truly upset about it, maybe you should smoke regular production sticks.
 

AlohaStyle

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Can I please tell you what I like and what I have a hard time finding so you can buy them and flip them purely for a profit??? Nice...
 

icehog3

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If ones intent is to buy HTF cigars with no intention of smoking or collecting them, but merely to flip them for profit, one is a "cigar broker", not a BOTL.
 
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Good points from Craig and aherzing. I certainly want to clarify that it would never be my wish to deprive a brother or sister from a sought-after leaf. Think on this a moment, though-- when a manufacturer puts something out that is heavily marketed as a "limited run," and especially if it comes with some crazy packaging, aren't they actually marketing less to the folks who enjoy a good smoke and more to the "collectors/speculators?" The examples of products I gave in the first post are all distinguished by some sort of unique/collectible packaging that has little to do with the quality of the cigars themselves (ornate chests, variant colored boxes, cute tins). Take the 2012 "Destino al Siglo" Fuente Opus X as a prime example. The marketing makes a big deal of the production runs of the blue vs. the white vs. the macassar packaging, with the blue and white being so much rarer than the macassar. All the boxes have the same cigars in them, so who cares what color box it comes in? It strikes me exactly like... comic books (yeah, I'm almost 50 and I still read comics). When the new Justice League #1 came out just over a year ago, it had 52 variant covers. Same product inside the cover... but all those different covers, all produced with different runs so that they achieved varying degrees of rarity. Who are they marketing to with this sort of ploy? Collectors and speculators, of course. By "collector, " I mean someone who's going to acquire the rarest variant they can afford and slap it into a plastic covering so it will remain in mint condition, never to be handled, let alone read, by human beings. And of course, speculators will try and flip the rarest variants they were able to procure, selling to those aforementioned collectors who weren't able to get their hands on the product during its initial offering, for whatever reason. Isn't there a subset of the cigar culture that behaves the exact same way-- collecting rare boxes (and perhaps never opening them lest they lose their cachet)? And some amongst that subset will sell some of their collectible boxes so as to be able to acquire ever more collectible items. I'm not saying that's the best behavior. Comics are meant to be read and well-loved, just as cigars are meant to be smoked and savored. Both kinds of products are manufactured to be consumables. But there will always be people who will choose not to treat them as such, and it will be the marketing/packaging that will encourage that behavior. I will take a deep breath and admit that if I lived near one of the 13 retailers that had those Mummy dress boxes on hand, I'd very likely have purchased a non-dress box for my own consumption and bought a dress box to flip so as to make the non-dress box, essentially, free to me. That dress box is the "variant cover," and if Tatuaje is going to create a product that screams collectibility, well, no one should be surprised if it's treated in the marketplace like a collectible.

Having said all that, brothers and sisters, please don't excommunicate me.
 

Hoshneer

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I think you probably shouldn't of even asked this question. The truth is smoke what you enjoy and if you don't enjoy it sell it however you want or for as much as you want. If some dip-sh*t wants to pay 100 times what something is worth because he/she has way to much money in his pocket then so be it. Congratulations, you just made some good money from someone that probably cares less about that money then you do.

I hate to say it but most HTF stuff is HTF because people hype it up and let's face it, 50% of a cigar experience is mental and if you think it's good the odds are that you will like it. Gurkha would never exist if this wasn't true. Nothing makes a cigar worth hundreds of dollars, just like nothing makes a bottle of Pappy 23 year worth $400 except the one dumb-ass that buys it. I guess the issue is people should appreciate a fine cigar but they really shouldn't make it the only obsession of their life.

Good luck,
Hosh Out. :/
 

thejavaman

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You seem like a highly intelligent, well adjusted human being & I think you have pretty much answered your own question(s) in your last post. I hope no one here wants to "excommunicate" you, but quite a few people (including me) feel very strongly about this issue.
 

AlohaStyle

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Where do you think a lot of cigar "collectors" "hang out?" Yes, cigar forums like here. Yes of course it happens, but good luck making friends here if you are open/proud of flipping cigars that a lot of people want.
 
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Where do you think a lot of cigar "collectors" "hang out?" Yes, cigar forums like here. Yes of course it happens, but good luck making friends here if you are open/proud of flipping cigars that a lot of people want.
Then I've got nothing to worry about, because absolutely no one here wants those Gurkhas! And I really do want to break out that Opus X Perfecxion tin in March for the big five-oh...

Truly-- shutting up now.
 
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