Just saw this article on cnn.com, perhaps the end to the embargo is closer than we think?
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/23/cuba.lugar/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/23/cuba.lugar/index.html
The beginning of the end?
- Thread starter Bull Moose
- Start date
It will be both; but it will take a long time for everything to settle back down.
njstone
BoM January 2010
It's inevitable that it WILL end at some point, and there is reasoning both and against doing it in the next few years.
As to whether it will be good or bad...the answer is both, and on many levels. By introducing capitalism to China, that country has moved closer and closer to freedom (it's really more of a Fascist state than a Communist state these days), but it's still awful there. Conversely, by pressuring Jamaica to shun Communism, that country has remained free--but still lives in abject poverty. Would the same happen in Cuba?
With its close proximity to the US, Cuba could easily become a wealthy and prosperous nation--the question is FOR WHOM? If it's just a few people like the Castros raking in all that profit and leaving their people in squalor--I think we'd be better off keeping the embargo on for a while. After all, there would be nothing to stop that regime if they were well funded by American tourism.
As far as the impact on the cigar industry, I think that initially you'd see a few things:
1) The sales of Non-Cuban cigars would fall, as more people would be buying Cubans
2) The quality of Cuban cigars on the whole would PLUMMET insanely fast, as those in control of the plants in Cuba race to meet demand and cut all kinds of corners (this is partially market-driven, and partially the assumption that the Cuban govt. would still be in charge and would put pressure on the cigar makers to bring in quick cash.)
3) People would buy Cubans by the boat-load initially, and then when they realize the quality isn't what they expected, they'll swing back to NCs.
4) The Cuban manufacturers that are still making high-quality cigars will end up not seeing a huge increase in sales, partially because of the new buzz of "bad Cubans" and partially because those who hadn't tried them before now think that: for the price, there are a lot of non-Cubans that are as good or better.
As to whether it will be good or bad...the answer is both, and on many levels. By introducing capitalism to China, that country has moved closer and closer to freedom (it's really more of a Fascist state than a Communist state these days), but it's still awful there. Conversely, by pressuring Jamaica to shun Communism, that country has remained free--but still lives in abject poverty. Would the same happen in Cuba?
With its close proximity to the US, Cuba could easily become a wealthy and prosperous nation--the question is FOR WHOM? If it's just a few people like the Castros raking in all that profit and leaving their people in squalor--I think we'd be better off keeping the embargo on for a while. After all, there would be nothing to stop that regime if they were well funded by American tourism.
As far as the impact on the cigar industry, I think that initially you'd see a few things:
1) The sales of Non-Cuban cigars would fall, as more people would be buying Cubans
2) The quality of Cuban cigars on the whole would PLUMMET insanely fast, as those in control of the plants in Cuba race to meet demand and cut all kinds of corners (this is partially market-driven, and partially the assumption that the Cuban govt. would still be in charge and would put pressure on the cigar makers to bring in quick cash.)
3) People would buy Cubans by the boat-load initially, and then when they realize the quality isn't what they expected, they'll swing back to NCs.
4) The Cuban manufacturers that are still making high-quality cigars will end up not seeing a huge increase in sales, partially because of the new buzz of "bad Cubans" and partially because those who hadn't tried them before now think that: for the price, there are a lot of non-Cubans that are as good or better.
I agree with Nate, but would like to expand a tad:
We'd get and increase of cigar smokers out some of those who do not smoke but wonder what's it with those Cubans. That added tothe availability would give an expensieve and low quality production to meet demand. Eventually, thenew smokers would tryNC to find the better quality and cheaper due to decrease in demand and the ones that already smoked would go back to their cigars. This would require Cuba to return to their usual quality production and/or lower prices; eventually settling everything down; only with more smokers and, after the economic growth in Cuba, a larger production of CCs.
We'd get and increase of cigar smokers out some of those who do not smoke but wonder what's it with those Cubans. That added tothe availability would give an expensieve and low quality production to meet demand. Eventually, thenew smokers would tryNC to find the better quality and cheaper due to decrease in demand and the ones that already smoked would go back to their cigars. This would require Cuba to return to their usual quality production and/or lower prices; eventually settling everything down; only with more smokers and, after the economic growth in Cuba, a larger production of CCs.
njstone
BoM January 2010
That's a good point, and I think probably true. A lot of people who don't smoke often buy Cubans today (fakes, most likely) just for status. If Cubans were more available, they'd be able to smoke them a bit more.
If they hated them, though, that would turn them off to cigars period. But if they liked them just enough, then some friends might recommend a Padron or something and they'd make the switch to something cheaper and better than a crappy Cuban.
I agree that we'd end up with more cigar smokers if the embargo ended.
Add to that the ever-increasing taxes in America and I think we'll also see a lot of cigarette smokers quitting and picking up cigars instead, for both health and monetary reasons.
But only after several years. Cuba, due to the demand, will need all the tobacco they produce; and the little they'll sell will be worth a fortune. As for Pepin; I'm not sure...I once read he had set himself a goalofmaking the most similar cigar to a CC without using Cuban product (correct me if wrong, though)
I agree completely and amwaiting anxiously at the result this might yield in the end.
openendstraight
Grand Corona
I think what you are saying is it will be good for the first few months, then it will decline quickly, and then slowly become good again in quality, price and avalibality.
The problem is it my hurt the market for a few years maybe even a decade. And not only that, I think you will see a hugh increase in fake CC.
The problem is it my hurt the market for a few years maybe even a decade. And not only that, I think you will see a hugh increase in fake CC.
Hear hear.
I was under the impression that he is just sitting waiting for Cuba to open up. I thought I read somewhere that that's why he's been scooping up old Cuban brand names like El Triunfador and maybe La Riqueza and stuff. Then when the embargo lifts, he'll hold the rights to the names of older Cuban cigars and can bring them back.
I could be completely wrong, tho.
TYLER
hdroadglide
BoM x 2, BoY 2011
i plan on having little brown rubber bracelets made that say W.W. P. D.
openendstraight
Grand Corona
I think you just gave Pete an idea...
And a light brown fleur de lis! And Tyler, I wouldn't be surprised.
hdroadglide
BoM x 2, BoY 2011
i'll sell him my idea for a futures box of the new vintage!!:clap: