Are cigars an elastic or inelastic good? I can kinda see it both ways, like if they get too expensive we'll just switch over to pipes or something, but on the other hand the "demographic" (upper-class, fancy schmancy) of cigar smokers might not divert from their tried and true cigars. You think most people will say goodbye to cigars (excluding any black market stuff, i.e. overseas vendors) or just suck it up and pay the price?
I brought it up in my econ class today (we were actually discussing taxes, so it was nicely appropriate) and everybody there seems to think we're all rich assholes who have money coming out of their asses and a 50% per stick increase is no big deal. As much as I wish we were all loaded, 50%/stick more than what we're paying is a lot of money. I think the N/C market (especially the mid-priced stuff, like CAOs, Macanudos, JdNs, etc.) will take a huge hit, and sticks like Onyx Reserves, Sancho Panzas, and Indian Tabacs will be the new mid-grade stuff.
I can't decide which path we might take if/when this hits. Of course, manufacturers will take at a good part of the tax hit, too. Maybe larger companies like CI and JR's will just suck up the majority of this tax and prices won't go up too much. Who knows?
TYLER