IMO the counterfeit market will increase because of the price hikes. Although there are lots of warnings and measures implemented to slow it down, there are many gullible people who want the 'deal'. However, these are people who consider $150 to be an outrageous amount to spend on cigars, therefore, it's not taking revenue away from Habanos. For the tourist looking for cigars as souvenirs, but who won't buy fakes, I think they'll move their purchases to Guantanameras or 3 or 5 packs. In which case 5% won't dissuade them.
As for the smoking ban, I believe it applies only to enclosed public areas. At any rate, I'm not planning to reduce the number of cigars I smoke because of it. Lots of warm, sunny outdoors areas to puff.