The new boom?

[Jwrussell]

I've been meaning to post this up for a while now, and something Wer said on MM's thread regarding aging prompted me to it. He said he believed we were "on the cusp of a new boom." I think he's absolutely correct. I think the last boom brought alot of new long-term cigar smokers to the market increasing the overall number of cigar smokers from what their previously was. Add to this what I perceive to be an ever growing interest in cigars and the strange fact that within the past couple of months I've noticed more and more folks standing outside smoking cigars in my neighborhood. I can count 2 (my neighbor across the street, and some guy on my dog-walk route) who are regular cigar smokers, and this weekend another guy on our street was out doing yardwork with a stogie hanging out of his mouth.

I don't frequent the local cigar establishments so I have to ask the rest of you what you see there. I imagine there is somewhat of an increase in traffic there just from the increase in anti-smoking laws, but is there more to it than that?

And if anyone keeps track of the Cuban Cigar market, there seems to be a definite up-trend in pricing on that front. Of course most of this can be attributed to Altadis's influence, but again, is there more to it than that?

What's everyone think?

 

[Wasch_24]

I think you are simply noticing the cigar smokers in your neighborhood more because you are smoking more regularly.

Just like when you get a new car...suddenly they are all over the road.

 

[Greg]

Actually, there is an article in CA addressing this. The New Boom

 

[Eric]

IMO, while I don't necessarily think it's a boom, but more of a high surge that started in mid-to-late 2003 and will hit it's high in 2009. Two key reasons: Fraility of Castro and cuban government and good marketing on both the cuban and domestic market. With Altadis now having control in both markets they have much more lobby power. And with the addition of a new president in 2008 that will help open the cuban market (hopefully).

 

[Fox]

. . .snip. . .And with the addition of a new president in 2008 that will help open the cuban market (hopefully).

I tend to agree with you on this. Unfortunately, this will create an unbridled demand for CC's and prices will rise to astronomical levels. . .:disappoin This in itself may lead to a much larger boom for cigars in general.

 

[ClockworkDragonfly]

I see the boom too.
Cigars are becoming fashionable again. Going to the clubs on "college night" is easily a testament to that. A couple months ago I took my girlfriend at the time out and I didn't see a single cigarette, but the place was chock full of cigars.

 

[tobby4]

I can see a boom coming for sure, but i doubt that the embargowill end with the next president.... I think that it is going to take Castro dying for this to occur..... but we will see all this in time..

 

[MichiganM]

I can see the boom, the writing is on the wall. Unabashed price gouging is sure to happen.....simple supply and demand will start it off, from there is anyone's guess. The end to the embargo will happen long after the next boom fully makes way though. I'm not sure how much I wish for it to end, as cuban cigars are relatively affordable right now. Quality, as well will change simply because of more customers. In time, with the end of an embargo, Cuba will re-emerge as a decent country though with the benefits that a lack of embargo offers. Only time will tell what truly is in store.

 

[DWSC_Bob]

Ending the embargo is complicted not just politically, but also because of trademark issues. When is a Padron not a Padron? Until there is a workable solution to having multiple products from different producers with the same brand name, you won't see Cuban cigars sold (legally) in this country. You can't just throw out the trademarks and brand names that these non-Cuban cigar companies have spent millions developing and promoting nor can you throw out the Cuban brands, What to do....

 

[Headbanger]

So as long as Cuba remains a communist country lead by a dictator that goes against most of our government and humane policies, nothing will be imported into the USA leagally IMO.

Oh, I guess I am a part of the boom and unsure why I started.

 

[tobby4]

I believe that there are a large number of individuals who come in and out of the market with each and every boom that occurs... i definetly believe that if/when the embargo ends you will have TONS of uneducated individuals that will overload the cuban market and that is what scares me... so many uneducated people will flush the market buying the "popular" brands....

which I guess I am glad I dont love Cohibas

 

[Fox]

Ending the embargo is complicted not just politically, but also because of trademark issues. When is a Padron not a Padron? Until there is a workable solution to having multiple products from different producers with the same brand name, you won't see Cuban cigars sold (legally) in this country. You can't just throw out the trademarks and brand names that these non-Cuban cigar companies have spent millions developing and promoting nor can you throw out the Cuban brands, What to do....

While I think there is a lot of truth to Bob's comment, I am not at all sure that the trademark issue is that big. There is a lot of pressure in this country, abroad and in the U.N., to bring Cuba back into the fold. It is a high stakes game right now, mostly based upon electoral considerations. Our country is (statistically speaking) evenly divided in terms of national office. Florida is the largest "swing" state. Nobody in either party is willing to piss of the Cuban immigrants in FL., throwing them to the "other side". That is the largest single influence upon the embargo today. To a lesser degree is a continuing love affair with an assassinated President and his administration, along with the "rightness" of his embargo choice.

It makes less and less sense to the populace to keep the embargo in place, which only hurts the Cuban people. We have normalized relations with Vietnam and have a lot of businesses relocating there. We do business with China and Venezuela. People are starting to ask: "What is the sense in maintaining Cuba as the regional pariah?" "If we can do business in Vietnam, who we actually went to war with, why will we not do business with Cuba?"

I like to think that we would normalize relations with Cuba as soon as Fidel takes a dirt nap, but I am not convinced that will happen. There are too many Cuban expatriates who are still influential in elections and until something happens to make them of little import, it will be more of the same. Who knows, Fidel could live another 15 - 20 years. That fellow has turned out to be far more resilient than our leaders would have ever imagined.

 

[wer]

I've been meaning to post this up for a while now, and something Wer said on MM's thread regarding aging prompted me to it. He said he believed we were "on the cusp of a new boom." I think he's absolutely correct. I think the last boom brought alot of new long-term cigar smokers to the market......

Several of my locals have noted an uptick in sales (including one large, local internet retailer) and interest in cigar smoking as a hobby.

There are a couple things that I believe could temper the growing boom.

1. The first is the ever increasing restrictions on indoor smoking. While I love to sit all by myself and enjoy a cigar, for many it is a social activity. I remember the bars filled with cigar smokers, and a frenzy of paying outrageous prices at the bar, during the mid-90s. As more cities make this an illegal activity there will naturally be fewer cigar smokers that experience this pleasurable pastime.

2. If the government decides to apply sales tax to all internet cigar purchases the tremendous value provided by searching the web will temper many individuals purchases and decrease the shortages experienced in the past boom. Plus, many NC manufacturers are much better prepared for ramping up production as demand dictates.

3. In a similar vein, if the government outright outlaws the sale of all tobacco products via the internet and transport across state lines, many individuals will simply be priced out of the hobby. Presently, the aggressive taxes of many states are easily circumvented by internet commerce. This could all easily change by lawmakers lookng to cash in and save us from ourselves :argh:

 

[cvm4]

Ya'll all make good points and I love my cheap cuban cigars.

 

[Wasch_24]

All very good points Wer.

 

[smokem94]

Several of my locals have noted an uptick in sales (including one large, local internet retailer) and interest in cigar smoking as a hobby.

There are a couple things that I believe could temper the growing boom.

1. The first is the ever increasing restrictions on indoor smoking. While I love to sit all by myself and enjoy a cigar, for many it is a social activity. I remember the bars filled with cigar smokers, and a frenzy of paying outrageous prices at the bar, during the mid-90s. As more cities make this an illegal activity there will naturally be fewer cigar smokers that experience this pleasurable pastime.

2. If the government decides to apply sales tax to all internet cigar purchases the tremendous value provided by searching the web will temper many individuals purchases and decrease the shortages experienced in the past boom. Plus, many NC manufacturers are much better prepared for ramping up production as demand dictates.

3. In a similar vein, if the government outright outlaws the sale of all tobacco products via the internet and transport across state lines, many individuals will simply be priced out of the hobby. Presently, the aggressive taxes of many states are easily circumvented by internet commerce. This could all easily change by lawmakers lookng to cash in and save us from ourselves :argh:

You nailed it......the above 3 issues will make it difficult and not worth the hassle to all but the most die hard afficianados thus curbing any boom.
I too enjoy my cigars alone but enjoy even more the social setting of a nice cigar bar with great drinks and great company!

 

[CWS]

Wer you are right on. In November in California the vote will be on doubling the tax or passing a fifty cent per stick tax. My local B&M is making plans to close if the first passes. Alarmed I talked to three others that said the same thing. Its hard to boom if you have no where to buy a cigar to try.

 

[cvm4]

Yea I feel that increasing taxes will price most people out of cigar entirely. Hell they rely on the sin tax so much that they won't know what to do when people really just quit buying tobacco. Then we'll be up a creek without a paddle.

 

[MichiganM]

It's a shame to think about all this. Some people have sufficient collections to see them through the better part of decade smoke-wise....some (like myself) don't. Although, the internet is global...taxes are not. If they force vendors here in the USA to tax internet sales to customers in the US as if they were buying on the spot that's fine. However, I don't see how overseas (ahem) vendors will be impacted. So I guess what I'm saying is I don't see how buying cigars overseas will be impacted..I guess you'll just be forced into buying one kind of cigar, which is what alot of people do anyway. My understanding of tax laws is extremely limited, so I may be wrong there.

 

[hootgibson]

Something I have wondered about....If the Communist gov't dies when Fidel does, do y'all think some of the folks who got away from Cuba might hightail it back there? Or do you think they will stay in Nicarauga, Honduras, Dominican Republic, etc?